Tension in Cosmology?

I noticed this abstract (of a paper by Rest et al.) on the arXiv the other day:

We present griz light curves of 146 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia Supernovae (0.03<z<0.65) discovered during the first 1.5 years of the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey. The Pan-STARRS1 natural photometric system is determined by a combination of on-site measurements of the instrument response function and observations of spectrophotometric standard stars. We have investigated spatial and time variations in the photometry, and we find that the systematic uncertainties in the photometric system are currently 1.2% without accounting for the uncertainty in the HST Calspec definition of the AB system. We discuss our efforts to minimize the systematic uncertainties in the photometry. A Hubble diagram is constructed with a subset of 112 SNe Ia (out of the 146) that pass our light curve quality cuts. The cosmological fit to 313 SNe Ia (112 PS1 SNe Ia + 201 low-z SNe Ia), using only SNe and assuming a constant dark energy equation of state and flatness, yields w = -1.015^{+0.319}_{-0.201}(Stat)+{0.164}_{-0.122}(Sys). When combined with BAO+CMB(Planck)+H0, the analysis yields \Omega_M = 0.277^{+0.010}_{-0.012} and w = -1.186^{+0.076}_{-0.065} including all identified systematics, as spelled out in the companion paper by Scolnic et al. (2013a). The value of w is inconsistent with the cosmological constant value of -1 at the 2.4 sigma level. This tension has been seen in other high-z SN surveys and endures after removing either the BAO or the H0 constraint. If we include WMAP9 CMB constraints instead of those from Planck, we find w = -1.142^{+0.076}_{-0.087}, which diminishes the discord to <2 sigma. We cannot conclude whether the tension with flat CDM is a feature of dark energy, new physics, or a combination of chance and systematic errors. The full Pan-STARRS1 supernova sample will be 3 times as large as this initial sample, which should provide more conclusive results.

The mysterious Pan-STARRS stands for the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System, a set of telescopes cameras and related computing hardware that monitors the sky from its base in Hawaii. One of the many things this system can do is detect and measure distant supernovae, hence the particular application to cosmology described in the paper. The abstract mentions a preliminary measurement of the parameter w, which for those of you who are not experts in cosmology is usually called the “equation of state” parameter for the dark energy component involved in the standard model. What it describes is the relationship between the pressure P and the energy density ρc2 of this mysterious stuff, via the relation P=wρc2. The particularly interesting case is w=-1 which corresponds to a cosmological constant term; see here for a technical discussion. However, we don’t know how to explain this dark energy from first principles so really w is a parameter that describes our ignorance of what is actually going on. In other words, the cosmological constant provides the simplest model of dark energy but even in that case we don’t know where it comes from so it might well be something different; estimating w from surveys can therefore tell us whether we’re on the right track or not.

The abstract explains that, within the errors, the Pan-STARRS data on their own are consistent with w=-1. More interestingly, though, combining the supernovae observations with others, the best-fit value of w shifts towards a value a bit less than -1 (although still with quite a large uncertainty). Incidentally  value of w less than -1 is generally described as a “phantom” dark energy component. I’ve never really understood why…

So far estimates of cosmological parameters from different data sets have broadly agreed with each other, hence the application of the word “concordance” to the standard cosmological model.  However, it does seem to be the case that supernova measurements do generally seem to push cosmological parameter estimates away from the comfort zone established by other types of observation. Could this apparent discordance be signalling that our ideas are wrong?

That’s the line pursued by a Scientific American article on this paper entitled “Leading Dark Energy Theory Incompatible with New Measurement”. This could be true, but I think it’s a bit early to be taking this line when there are still questions to be answered about the photometric accuracy of the Pan-Starrs survey. The headline I would have picked would be more like “New Measurement (Possibly) Incompatible With Other Measurements of Dark Energy”.

But that would have been boring…

13 Responses to “Tension in Cosmology?”

  1. Hints at phantom behaviour also in this very recent paper using multiple DE EOS
    arxiv 1310.6161

  2. But is it smooth tension? 🙂

  3. 2.4 sigma? How many tests do you need to compare to find two which differ at the 2.4-sigma level, even if there is no real tension?

  4. “-1.015^{+0.319}_{-0.201}”

    At the last Moriond cosmology meeting, Richard Battye looked at measurements of w and found that there are many like -1.02 (+0.3 -0.25). In other words, the agreement between the measurements for the best-fit value is much better than it should be if the errors on the various measurements are correct.

  5. Will Sutherland Says:

    To Phillip: re your claim about Sandage, it is interesting that he got H_0 ~ 75 in 1958, href=http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1958ApJ…127..513S , then spent the next 30+ years pushing for lower values around 50. He also pioneered the globular cluster age estimates, and tended to get high values >~ 15 Gyr. Is it known whether he had a strong belief for Omega_m = 1 and wanted low H_0 to make H_0 t_0 = 2/3 ?

    Peter: I think the “phantom” term for w < -1 originates from Rob Caldwell's paper in 1999, http://arxiv.org/abs/9908168/ , and the phrase comes from the Star Wars prequel of 1999… this theme re the "dark side" has continued, e.g. pic of Darth Vader on the cover of the Kolb 2006 dark energy task force.

    Ian : I'm not quite sure what your point is re "knowing the answer". Most cosmologists probably would "prefer" to prove w not equal to -1 (or GR wrong) which gets a strong chance of a Nobel Prize, while just getting closer and closer to -1 probably does not. There was considerable discussion at the Durham Ripples meeting about the need for "blinding" in future cosmological analyses to avoid "confirmation bias".

    • telescoper Says:

      I think it would be great if w turned out to be less than -1, because then we’d all know for sure what we currently only suspect, ie that we don’t understand anything!

    • Sandage certainly believed in the Einstein-de Sitter model. I heard him lecture at a Saas-Fee school (no. 23, 1993, proceedings available). He said many times that Omega had to be 1 (he assumed lambda=0) as required by “grand unification”, whatever he meant by that. (Probably, he thought that some particle physicists had proved inflation and hence a flat universe and hence Omega=1 if lambda is 0.) It is definitely the case that his age estimates, his H_0 estimates and his “measurement” of q_0 (with lambda=0, Omega = 2*q) “just happened” to be consistent. In retrospect, he was wrong about H_0, wrong about q_0 and wrong (to a lesser extent) about the ages.

      Nevertheless, I recommend the book The Deep Universe (which also includes contributions by Rich Kron and Malcolm Longair). Sandage had an encyclopedic knowlege of cosmology and related fields, knew about the details and about the big picture and was a charismatic fellow. He was also a bridge between the latter part of the classic era of modern cosmology (the 1930s), having worked with Hubble, Baade etc, and the then current one. (“Yes, we had several computers when I started. They were all in the basement, about 20 years old and female.”) The more sad, then, that he got deluded and really believed that observations indicated the values he wanted. (A cynic would say that because of his encyclopedic knowledge, he knew where he could fudge to get the desired effect without it being obvious.) Reminds me of an aging musician whose back catalogue clearly indicates genius but is now forced to hack out low-quality stuff because otherwise he can’t pay the rent. 😐

      Sandage also wrote a paper claiming that H_0 is 42. Don’t panic!

      Stay tuned for comments by Tom Shanks. 🙂

    • Due to their rather unusual format, ADS URLs are not recognized properly by WordPress. You can include them in explicitly coded HTML, though.

    • I’m not quite sure what your point is re “knowing the answer”. Most cosmologists probably would “prefer” to prove w not equal to -1 (or GR wrong) which gets a strong chance of a Nobel Prize, while just getting closer and closer to -1 probably does not. There was considerable discussion at the Durham Ripples meeting about the need for “blinding” in future cosmological analyses to avoid “confirmation bias”.

      The first part seems to contradict the second part.

      I’m not so sure about the first part. Yes, there are probably some who dream of discovering something wild, but I think these are the minority. Many just wait and see what the observations say (Ray Carlberg, for example) and some definitely publish only when the “discover” something which fits what they think should be correct. Apart from Sandage, think of Kellermann’s nature paper where he claimed to have determined that the universe is Einstein-de Sitter via the standard-rod test. (Within a short time, at least two papers appeared showing how wrong he was, even using exactly the same data.)

      Yes, it is good to discover something interesting and unexpected, but such a result needs to be supported by very good evidence. On the other hand, suggesting something strange based on a 2-sigma result seems like trying to generate publicity.

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