The polls and (all but one of) the forecasts WERE wrong. Ed Miliband was nowhere near becoming Prime Minister

Fascinating detailed analysis of what went wrong with the opinion polls and Labour’s campaign strategy.

shaunjlawson

Thursday May 7, 2015. Britain goes to the polls at what is universally – entirely wrongly – believed to be the closest General Election in fully two generations. The opinion polls are deadlocked, and have been for months. The choice facing the country is by far the most stark since 1992: this wasn’t, contrary to what 99.99% of people assumed, a close election – but it was certainly a watershed.

On Tuesday morning, I set out why I believed that almost all forecasts and predictions were wrong: Ed Miliband’s strategy had been hopelessly flawed; his party would find itself squeezed from all sides; and above all, that the methodology employed by every single opinion polling company was wrong. Alarmingly wrong. Disastrously wrong. Inexcusably wrong.

At this point though, I want to highlight that, in no small part, I was wrong too. While I foresaw an enormously disappointing night for Labour…

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2 Responses to “The polls and (all but one of) the forecasts WERE wrong. Ed Miliband was nowhere near becoming Prime Minister”

  1. Anton Garrett Says:

    From the full article:

    “extraordinarily, the ever more influential polling business is entirely unregulated. In such a world, despite their consistent inaccuracy, all polls are effectively taken on trust: a remarkable state of affairs. Foulkes has therefore introduced a Parliamentary Bill intending to establish an independent regulator; which will also place restrictions on polls being published in the three weeks leading up to an election. In light of all that’s happened in this campaign, one can only wish his Bill speedy and safe passage.”

    Well I don’t. Freedom of speech includes freedom to talk unmitigated drivel about all subjects including who’s going to win a coming general election. In fact especially about who’s going to win a coming general election. When the government starts restricting freedom of speech about who might replace them then something very sinister would be about.

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