On (un)falsifiability of paradigms with Bayesian model selection …

Yesterday’s post is generating quite a lot if traffic for a weekend so I thought I would reblog this piece on the same topic..

Another Astrostatistics Blog

I noticed an unusual contribution on the philosophy of science with Bayesian model selection by Gubitosi et al. on astro ph the other day, in which some rather bold claims are made, e.g.

“By considering toy models we illustrate how unfalsifiable models and paradigms are always favoured by the Bayes factor.”

Despite the authors making a number of sniping comments about the sociology of “proof of inflation” claims in astronomy, their meta-reflections did not reach a point of self-awareness at which they were able to escape my own sociological observation: the bolder the claims made by astronomers about Bayes theorem, the narrower their reading of the past literature on the subject. Indeed, in this manuscript there are no references at all to any previous work on the role of Bayes factors in scientific decision making, even from within the astronomical canon (leaving beside the history of statistics); more precisely, it…

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2 Responses to “On (un)falsifiability of paradigms with Bayesian model selection …”

  1. Anton Garrett Says:

    Real Bayesians get it from RT Cox…

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