Well today’s the date of the election of the next President of the United States of America. Will it be Hillary Clinton? Or will it be an unstable racist misogynist, a pathological liar, and a man who has boasted of a string of sexual assaults? It remains to be seen. The polls are alarming close. Hillary Clinton is ahead by just 3 or 4 percent nationally but only a handful of states really matter and some of those are too close to call. I’ve been following Nate Silver’s 538 election forecast for a while now. It seems to me his methodology more accurately estimates the uncertainty in the opinion polls. After narrowing considerably when the FBI decided to throw a spanner into the works last week, the probability of a Clinton win is now over a little over 70%. Uncomfortable, but the odds have been below 2-1 very recently.
At the weekend I decided that I would follow my usual betting practice and place a wager on the outcome that I don’t want to happen. Hunting around, the best odds I could find were 18-5 against Donald Trump. I put a monkey on, so will walk away with £2300 if Trump wins. I plan to use the proceeds to begin work on the construction of a fallout shelter in my garden. If an unstable psychopath like Donald Trump gets his hands on the American nuclear codes I don’t hold out much hope for the future of civilization.
I followed the same strategy on Referendum Day as I felt it in my bones that Vote Leave was going to win. I ended up depressed but compensated to the tune of £1000. I’m afraid to say I feel the same way now about the likelihood of a Trump victory. Not very scientific, I know, but there you go.
I have never paid much attention to American politics in the past. It is as incomprehensible to me as British politics must be to them. Gore Vidal summed it up for me:
There is only one party in the United States, the Property Party … and it has two right wings: Republican and Democrat. Republicans are a bit stupider, more rigid, more doctrinaire in their laissez-faire capitalism than the Democrats, who are cuter, prettier, a bit more corrupt — until recently … and more willing than the Republicans to make small adjustments when the poor, the black, the anti-imperialists get out of hand. But, essentially, there is no difference between the two parties.
Things have changed this time. Although both parties still represent the moneyed classes more than anyone else, but this time the Republican contender has overtly fascist tendencies. No wonder Nigel Farage admires him so much. Americans are free to vote for whomever they wish, of course. I don’t have a say, as I’m a foreigner. All I can say is that you should be very careful what you wish for.
Although I find it deeply depressing that this race is even close, I won’t lose any sleep over the election night. I don’t have a television, and I’ll do what I did on the day of the EU referendum. Drink some wine, listen to music and then go to sleep. There’s no point in worrying about things that are out of your hands. And if Trump does win, at least it shortens the list of countries I will have to consider emigrating to if and when the UK does leave the European Union..Follow @telescoper