Par scores in T20 cricket
So last night Glamorgan won a Natwest T20 Blast match against Gloucestershire by 25 runs having batted first and scored 176 off their 20 overs. Glamorgan are now top of the `South Division’, despite having three games rained off. They play second-placed Surrey on Friday. Weather permitting.
Anyhow, last night when I saw the result I got to wondering what the par score is for a first innings in Twenty20 (i.e. median score for a winning side batting first). Would you have expected them to win with a score of 176? The answer – and the answers to many other questions – can be found in this interesting post.
P.S. If you can’t be bothered to read the post, the median winning score for men’s T20 matches is about 164 so Glamorgan had a better-than-even chance of winning after their first innings.
I haven’t blogged for the last two weeks – partly because life has been busy, but also because I’ve struggled to come up with anything to say that provides particular insights about individual BBL or WBBL matches that are being played. I will return to this, and will continue to post key stats about various matches on the Strike Rate twitter account.
In this post, I’m posting my analysis of ‘par scores’ for T20, and how they vary between the men’s and women’s game, and in different parts of the world. This is useful for understanding what sort of score can be expected in particular conditions.
Par scores are calculated as run rates, which can be converted into total scores by multiplying by 20. This is more useful than raw total scores, since not all innings last for the full 20 overs. When a team wins in the second innings…
View original post 759 more words
July 26, 2017 at 5:24 pm
the median winning score for men’s T20 matches is about 164 so Glamorgan had a better-than-even chance of winning after their first innings.
…conditioned on not knowing who their opponents are (which you did)!
July 26, 2017 at 5:25 pm
Yes, I think that increased the probability!
July 26, 2017 at 10:58 pm
A lot depends on the typical pitch at the ground as well, for example Cardiff is generally fairly low scoring…none of Glamorgan’s 6 T20 hundreds have been scored at home (though their location also depends on where Colin Ingram was at the time). Peter probably thinks Cardiff should have a fairly high runs-per-over rate, as they only ever play 5 or 10-over a side thrashes there whenever the rain allows.
July 27, 2017 at 1:16 pm
Have you ever been to the County Ground at Bristol (where Tuesday’s match was played)? I’m not sure what its reputation is as for batsmen?
July 27, 2017 at 2:59 pm
It’s the only place I’ve ever seen a batsman reach a score of 300 ! That was about 18 years ago in a county championship match and I recall that the batsman was an Australian, but I can’t remember whether it was for Gloucestershire or their opponents.
July 27, 2017 at 5:35 pm
Found it!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/counties/3032876/Division-Two-Hussey-hits-triple-hundred.html
July 27, 2017 at 3:29 pm
The bookies offer some advice on grounds here (though it is probably a bit out of date):
http://www.bookmakers1.com/englishcricketgrounds.html