What are we going to do now?

After another tumultuous day in British politics, this blog is once again proud to be able to show exclusive behind-the-scenes footage of the Cabinet discussions at Number 10 Downing Street:

3 Responses to “What are we going to do now?”

  1. Realistically, there are three options: hard Brexit, exit from Brexit, or the negotiated deal. The sensible thing to do would be to hold a legally binding referendum with those three options, in an instant-runoff format (i.e. one ranks one’s preferences then if there is no absolute majority based on first preferences, the option with least votes is discarded and the second-preference votes from those who voted for it are distributed among the others).

    My guess is that a hard Brexit will happen. I doubt that there will be sufficient will to hold a referendum, so the other two options are not on the table. Parliament voted for hard Brexit over the negotiated deal. (Yes, many might have wanted a better deal, but that was not one of the options.)

    I seriously doubt that the other EU members will allow a renegotiation. Even if the hard Brexit leads to problems for those other members, they will be much less severe than setting a precedent along the lines of “if you want to leave, keep rejecting negotiated agreements until the EU presents you with one you want”.

    • telescoper Says:

      The sensible thing now would be :

      1. Revoke the Article 50 notification (which the UK can do unilaterally)

      2. Carry out a thorough investigation into the criminal wrongdoing around the 2016 referendum

      3. Pass whatever laws are necessary to protect democracy in the UK against similar criminal interference

      4. Have a fair vote on Brexit.

      Of course there’s no chance whatsoever of the UK doing anything sensible.

      As I’ve said all along, I think what will happen is the UK will crash out without a deal, precipitating the break-up of the United Kingdom.

      • I think that the breakup of the UK might be a good thing, with Scotland and Northern Ireland joining the EU, perhaps involving a reunification of Ireland and/or some sort of union between Scotland and Northern Ireland.

        In such a case, what would Wales do?

        At the moment, there are 28 countries in the EU and 14 European countries which are not members. Of those, 5 are very small and relatively rich. Two others are very rich (Switzerland and Norway) and one is far away and used to be relatively rich (Iceland). The other six are the poorest countries in Europe (the former Yugoslavian states not (yet) in the EU, Kosovo (also part of former Yugoslavia), and Albania.

        The UK, or what’s left of it, will be in a league of its own.

        In other news, Macedonia agreed to a compromise in the bizarre name dispute (which would be like Belgians in the province of Luxembourg complaining that there is a neighbouring country of Luxembourg; Belgians have better things to do). It can be solved if Greece goes along, but even the compromise, which hugely favours Greece, is not acceptable to the hardliners, who are now sending death threats to MPs to try to convince them to vote no and hence keep the status quo (which Greece has use to block Macedonia’s requests to join the EU and NATO). Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent. (The compromise involves renaming Macedonia to Northern Macedonia, akin to the Bretagne/Grand-Bretagne distinction between Brittany in France and the island of Great Britain.)

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