The Book of Relegations

At this time of year it seems appropriate to do a post, as the thoughts of good folk around the world turn to the important issue of the season … ie who will get relegated from the Premiership.

Yesterday evening’s win by Newcastle United over Southampton left the lower reaches of the table looking like this:

Huddersfield and Fulham having already been doomed, the only question is who will join them.

The bookies clearly think Cardiff City are odds-on to take the third relegation spot: the best odds I could get are 1/6 on them going down, implying only a probability of 14% or so survival. Brighton and Hove Albion are 9/2. Southampton are 150/1, Burnley 250/1 and Newcastle 750/1.

I’m not so sure the odds on Cardiff City are fair: they do play Liverpool later today but after that seem to have two winnable games (against Fulham and Crystal Palace). Brighton are three points ahead of Cardiff, but that’s away against Spurs and they’ll do well to get anything out of that fixture, and after that they have games against Newcastle United, Arsenal and Manchester City. Despite yesterday’s 0-0 draw against Wolves they don’t look like a team strong on form and confidence.In short I think that 9/2 is worth a bet.

Let me say that I don’t want to see either Brighton or Cardiff go down. I’ve got ties to both places. I’m just talking about what seems probable not what I think is desirable.

Southampton seem to have extremely long odds too, but they do seem to have a much easier run in than Brighton.

We’ll see. I’d expect these odds to change quite a bit if Cardiff beat Liverpool this afternoon. If they lose, however, then Newcastle are mathematically safe from relegation…

UPDATE: Cardiff City lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool this afternoon. The odds on them get relegated have shortened a bit (around 1/8 is as good as you can get) but there’s no great change in the odds, presumably because bookies did not really expect Cardiff to get any points from that game. Brighton have now moved to 13/2 against.

Cardiff City are now on 31 points with three games left. That means the maximum total they can reach is 40, so Newcastle United are safe from relegation.

2 Responses to “The Book of Relegations”

  1. Simon Kemp Says:

    Also it was an exciting days cricket just down the road from the Cardiff City stadium in the spring sunshine. Somerset had a lower order recovery to reach 261-9 in their 50 overs. Glamorgan collapsed to 21-5 and 41.6 but then first David Lloyd (84) and then Graham Wagg (62) led the recovery, plus a few 6s from de Lange, but at 202-9 it looked hopeless. But the last-wicket par of van de Gugten and Carey scored runs quickly until they only needed 12 from 5 overs. But with 3 needed off two Carey (39) hit to Azhar Ali at deep mid-off, who at first dropped the catch but it landed on his chest as he fell, at about 6.40pm. Somerset win by 2 runs.

    • telescoper Says:

      I might have gone to watch that but for the fact that I flew back to Ireland today, as the Monday flights were very expensive. I am back to work on Tuesday, after tomorrow’s Bank Holiday.

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