The WHO-China Report on Corvid-19

As it is a matter of topical and general interest I thought it would be worthwhile sharing the joint World Health Organization – China report on Coronavirus, which you can find here. There is also a discussion thread on Reddit here.

A key figure from this report shows that the number of new cases of Covid-19 has indeed been declining:

The report indicates why and how this has happened. For example, when a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family transmitted by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of transmission.

Do read the report. While not being complacent about the scale of the public health challenge, it is a valuable antidote to some of the scaremongering going on.

9 Responses to “The WHO-China Report on Corvid-19”

  1. Dave Carter Says:

    Thank you Peter. One hopes that our government are taking note of this.

    • telescoper Says:

      One of the serious unknowns is whether COVID-19 will turn out to be seasonal. The UK government’s strategy seems to be to try to delay the spread until the summer, hoping that this is the case.

  2. Thanks for link. It confirms my impression that notwithstanding the media reporting, the people one talks to are remarkably well-informed about the disease.

    We were discussing this in the gym this morning – a fair cross-section of people. Many were puzzled as to the amount of attention being given to a disease with low incidence (so far) and low mortality compared with so many other endemic infections. Consensus was that it’s because it affects mainly old rich guys.

    • I doubt that that is the main reason. I think that it is the fact that it is not yet clear what will happen. Imagine a gunman running amok, shooting people at random. This would be on the news. The fact that orders of magnitude more people will die of other causes until he is finally stopped is neither a reason not to report it nor a reason not to protect oneself from him.

    • Dave Carter Says:

      Worst affected are elderly people, there is some marginal evidence that males are more likely to die than females. But there is no evidence at all that more wealthy people are worse affected. I think that your gym must be a hotbed of complacency.

      • Scepticism* rather than complacency. A panic “do something!” response by old rich** guys*** is their best explanation for what so far seems to be a disproportionate (looking at how other evidently more lethal diseases are dealt with) and sometimes inappropriate response. (Dads’ army? For goodness sake.)

        *and a bit of cynicism too. Some of us got some very nice and expensive new kit out of the Y2K scare. We’ve got the T-shirt.

        **as you say, older people do seem to be worst affected and the old rich, while they may not be any more at risk than old people in general, do have the power & influence to drive the response.

        *** “Guys” in this particular gym is always gender neutral.

  3. Dave Carter Says:

    For goodness sake, Y2K could have messed up computers, coronavirus kills. And yes it kills mostly older people. In my age group about 8%. So are they not important? I am not sure what other more lethal diseases you are referring to, there hasn’t been something this lethal since 1919.

    • Rather than address these specific points, I should acknowledge that the data cannot portray the experience or feelings of those individuals unfortunate enough to get a really bad dose of this disease, and of their family & friends. I recognise that at this time people particularly those most at risk will be anxious or even frightened and so my earlier flip comments were insensitive. Apologies for this.

  4. […] across into the capillaries and for carbon dioxide to diffuse out. As outlined in the report I shared a few days ago, severe cases therefore require treatment that involves being supplied with oxygen via a respirator […]

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