Phase Four Postponed

Yesterday the Irish government decided to postpone the last phase of its (already revised) Roadmap for Reopening and also make mandatory the wearing of face masks in shops. Phase Four was supposed to start on August 10th and was to include, among other things, the opening of pubs.

The reason for not proceeding with Phase Four is obvious when you look at yesterday’s  new cases graph:

(I keep updating the data here.

Note that the graph is logarithmic on the y-axes so the number of new cases is not large (currently averaging about 45 per day), but the trend is concerning; last week’s average was about 18. Most of the new cases are aged under 45 which perhaps accounts at least partly for the fact that the death curve is not rising: younger people are at lower risk of developing serious problems. The pattern of increasing infections but decreasing mortality figures is quite widespread across Europe, actually.

The recent cases in Ireland are occurring in clusters in particular locations. Of the 45 cases reported yesterday, for example, 33 were in County Kildare most of them at a single factory in Kildare itself (which has now been shut).

There has also been an increase in community transmission, though, which is perhaps even more dangerous than individual outbreaks.

It seems to me that pausing the planned relaxation of restrictions is a sensible thing to do at this stage. To open pubs now – which many continue to argue for – would in my view be extremely foolhardy.

I’m not sure what all this means for the new academic year which is due to start in September nor even the repeat examination period which are due to start next week but if cases continue to increase at their current rate it will severely impact our ability to return to on-campus activities.

 

 

6 Responses to “Phase Four Postponed”

  1. Phillip Helbig Says:

    “pausing the planned relaxation of restrictions”

    Almost as good as “I am not opposed to the repeal of the prohibition”. 🙂

  2. Phillip Helbig Says:

    I think that the current increase, which is happening in many countries, is due in part to belief in conspiracy theories, fake news, etc. (e.g. that it’s all bogus and part of the master plan of Gates or Soros or the Illuminati. If the tinfoil-hat crowd want to get together and infect each other, I have much greater problems to worry about; the problem is that they then return to their daily lives and infect others. Such conspiracy theories are now so common that many who believe in them won’t be suspected of doing so, and so will not be handled with the necessary caution.

    • telescoper Says:

      Talking of the Tinfoil Hat Brigade you should see the state of some of the bilge flying around about the explosion in Beirut!

      • Phillip Helbig Says:

        I’m sure it’s all related: corona, Beirut, Gates, the pyramids, Erich von Däniken, UFOs, vaccinations, chemtrails, the Elders of Zion, the Masons, and we both never landed on the Moon but there is already a colony on Mars run by Elon Musk and the PizzaGate crowd.

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