Unfortunately I believe that there is no real way to stop the spread of these lies/conspiracy theories. But we must keep trying to at least reduce their transmission!

]]>It’s a point I have made over and over again that most people don’t understand probabilities. I’ve even written a book about this. I see that conditional probabilities and Bayes’ Theorem are on the GCSE maths syllabus, so perhaps this will gradually change.

This is however a personal blog read by at most a few thousand people. Educating “everyone” is not my aim nor is it something of which I am capable. I write about what I find interesting at the time, that’s all. If you don’t like it, you can have your money back.

]]>[Seriously, I bought a copy of Gigerenzer’s “Reckoning with risk” shortly after it was published about 20 years ago, and still find it helpful as a very friendly way of setting these things out. Basically his argument is that natural frequencies are easier for lay people to understand than probabilities, which can be scary.]

]]>So, try leaving out *all* the formulae, because most people switch off the moment a formula appears (as why wouldn’t they, it’s a form of jargon abbreviation).

And if “proportions” are the same as “probabilities”, just stick to the *one* term throughout, please don’t muddle us by swapping from one to the other.

Please have another go. It’s important that people who understand these things practice making them understood to evefryone else.

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