COVID-19 Cases in Ireland

I thought I would make a record (for posterity, if there ever is such a thing) of the evolution of the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 (Coronavirus) in Ireland after the first case on 29th February; 12th March 2020 was when Schools and Colleges in the Republic were closed.

There have been changes in testing frequency and strategy over this time so one can’t use these numbers reliably to track the growth of the epidemic. Each number is really just a lower limit on the actual number of cases.

It is worth stating also that the “daily” cases are those reported on a given day not those that necessarily happened on that day: there can be a lag of a day or two, for example, between a death occurring and it being reported officially.

I’ve resisted the temptation to fit a model because the changes in testing and reporting are difficult to incorporate. Here are the confirmed cases and deaths on a log-linear plot.

I will update the data on this page after the daily briefing by the HSE, and update the plot whenever I get the time.

Here are linear plots for 27th May. The data are noisy but there is a general downward trend.

The Data:

February 29th: 1 case (+1)
March 1st: 1 case (+0)
March 2nd: 1 case (+0)
March 3rd: 2 cases (+1)
March 4th: 6 cases (+4)
March 5th: 13 cases (+7)
March 6th: 18 cases (+5)
March 7th: 19 cases (+1)
March 8th: 21 cases (+2)
March 9th: 24 cases (+3)
March 10th: 34 cases (+10)
March 11th: 43 cases (+9); 1 dead (+1)
March 12th: 70 cases (+27); 1 dead (+0)
March 13th: 90 cases (+20); 1 dead (+0)
March 14th: 129 cases (+39); 2 dead (+1)
March 15th: 169 cases (+40); 2 dead (+0)
March 16th: 223 cases (+54); 2 dead (+0)
March 17th: 292 cases (+69); 2 dead (+0)
March 18th: 366 cases (+74); 2 dead (+0)
March 19th: 557 cases (+191); 3 dead (+1)
March 20th: 683 cases (+126); 3 dead (+0)
March 21st: 785 cases (+102); 3 dead (+0)
March 22nd: 906 cases (+121); 4 dead (+1)
March 23rd: 1125 cases (+219); 6 dead (+2)
March 24th: 1329 cases (+204); 7 dead (+1)
March 25th: 1564 cases (+235); 9 dead (+2)
March 26th: 1819 cases (+255); 19 dead (+10)
March 27th: 2121 cases (+302); 22 dead (+3)
March 28th: 2415 cases (+294); 36 dead (+14)
March 29th: 2615 cases (+200); 46 dead (+10)
March 30th: 2910 cases (+295); 54 dead (+8)
March 31st: 3235 cases (+325); 71 dead (+17)
April 1st: 3447 cases (+212); 85 dead (+14)
April 2nd: 3489 cases (+402); 98 dead (+13)
April 3rd: 4273 cases (+424); 120 dead (+22)
April 4th: 4604 cases (+331); 137 dead (+17)
April 5th: 4994 cases (+390); 158 dead (+21)
April 6th: 5364 cases (+370); 174 dead (+16)
April 7th: 5709 cases (+345); 210 dead (+36)
April 8th: 6074 cases (+365); 235 dead (+25)
April 9th: 6574 cases (+500); 263 dead (+28)
April 10th: 8089 cases (+1515)*; 287 dead (+25)
April 11th: 8928 cases (+839)*; 320 dead (+33)
April 12th: 9655 cases (+727)*; 334 dead (+14)
April 13th: 10647 cases (+992)*; 365 dead (+31)
April 14th: 11479 cases (+832)*; 406 dead (+41)
April 15th: 12547 cases (+1068)*; 444 dead (+38)
April 16th: 13271 cases (+724)*; 486 dead (+42)
April 17th: 13980 cases (+709)*; 530 dead (+44)
April 18th: 14758 cases (+778)*; 571 dead (+41)
April 19th: 15251 cases (+493)*; 610 dead (+39)
April 20th: 15652 (+401); 687 dead (+77)
April 21st: 16040 (+388); 730 dead (+44)**
April 22nd: 16671 (+631); 769 dead (+49)**
April 23rd: 17607 (+936); 794 dead (+28)**
April 24th: 18184 (+577); 1014 dead (+37)**^
April 25th: 18561 (+377); 1063 dead (+39)**
April 26th: 19262 (+701); 1087 dead (+24)**
April 27th: 19648 (+386); 1102 dead (+18)**
April 28th: 19847 (+299); 1159 dead (+59)**
April 29th: 20253 (+376); 1190 dead (+31)
April 30th: 20612 (+359); 1232 dead (+43)**
May 1st: 20833 (+221); 1265 dead (+34)**
May 2nd: 21176 (+343); 1286 dead (+25)**
May 3rd: 21506 (+330); 1303 dead (+19)**
May 4th: 21772 (+266); 1319 dead (+16)
May 5th: 21983 (+211); 1339 dead (+23)**
May 6th: 22248 (+265); 1375 dead (+37)**
May 7th: 22385 (+137); 1403 dead (+29)**
May 8th: 22541 (+156): 1429 dead (+27)**
May 9th: 22760 (+219): 1446 dead (+18)**
May 10th: 22996 (+236): 1458 dead (+12)
May 11th: 23135 (+139); 1467 dead (+15)**
May 12th: 23242 (+107); 1488 dead (+24)**
May 13th: 23401 (+159); 1497 dead (+10)**
May 14th: 23827 (+203)# ; 1506 dead (+10)**
May 15th: 23956 (+129); 1518 dead (+16)**
May 16th: 24048 (+92); 1533 dead (+15)
May 17th: 24112 (+64); 1543 dead (+10)
May 18th: 24200 (+88); 1547 dead (+4)
May 19th: 24251 (+51); 1561 dead (+16)**
May 20th: 24315 (+64); 1571 dead (+11)**
May 21st: 24391 (+76); 1583 dead (+12)
May 22nd: 24506 (+115); 1592 dead (+11)**
May 23rd: 24582 (+76); 1604 dead (+13)**
May 24th: 24639 (+57); 1606 dead (+4)
May 25th: 24698 (+59); 1606 (+0)
May 26th: 24735 (+37); 1615 (+9)
May 27th: 24803 (+73); 1631 (+17)**

*The figures for 10th April to 19th April include a backlog of results returned from labs in Germany which should be attributed to earlier dates; some of the samples were taken up to two weeks earlier. On April 10th the number of confirmed cases returned from testing in Ireland was 480. On 11th April the number of new cases reported by test centres in Ireland on was 553. On April 12th the number of new cases reported by test centres in Ireland was 430. On April 13th the number of new cases reported by test centres in Ireland was 527. On April 14th the number of new cases reported by test centres in Ireland was 548. On April 15th the number of new cases reported by test centres in Ireland was 657. On April 16th the number of new cases reported by test centres in Ireland was 629. On April 17th the number of new cases reported by test centres in Ireland was 597. On April 18th the number of new cases reported by test centres in Ireland was 630. On April 19th the number of new cases reported by test centres in Ireland was 445.

**The number of Covid-19 related deaths reported on April 21st was 44, as shown, but one previously reported was reclassified hence the net increase of 43 in the total. Likewise on April 22nd, 49 deaths were recorded but 10 were reclassified so the net increase was 39. On April 23rd, 28 deaths were reported and 3 reclassified for a net increase of 25. On April 24th 37 deaths were reported but 2 reclassified for a net increase of 35. On 25th 52 deaths were reported but 3 reclassified for a net increase of 49. On April 26th 26 deaths were reported but 2 reclassified for a net increase of 24. On April 27th 18 deaths were reported but 3 reclassified for a net increase of 15. On April 28th 59 deaths were reported but 2 reclassified for a net increase of 57. On April 30th 43 deaths were reported but 1 reclassified for a net increase of 42. On May 1st 34 deaths were reported but 1 reclassified for a net increase of 33. On May 2nd 25 deaths were reported but 4 reclassified for a net increase of 21. On May 3rd 19 deaths were reported but two were reclassified for a net increase of 17. On May 5th 23 deaths were reported but 3 were reclassified for a net increase of 20. On May 6th 37 deaths were reported but 1 was reclassified for a net increase of 36. On May 7th 29 deaths were recorded but 1 was reclassified for a net increase of 28. On May 8th 27 deaths were recorded but 1 was reclassified for a net increase of 26. On May 9th 18 deaths were recorded but 1 reclassified for a net increase of 17. On May 11th 15 deaths were recorded but 6 reclassified for a net increase of 9. On May 12th 24 deaths were recorded but 3 reclassified for a net increase of 21. May 13th 10 deaths were recorded but 1 reclassified for a net increase of 9; likewise May 14th. On May 15th 16 deaths were reported but 4 reclassifed for a net increase of 12. On May 19th 16 deaths were recorded but 2 reclassified for a net increase of 14. On May 20th 11 deaths were recorded but 1 reclassified for a net increase of 10. On May 22nd 11 deaths were recorded but 2 reclassified for a net increase of 9. On May 23rd, 13 deaths were recorded but 1 reclassified for a net increase of 12. On May 24th, 4 new deaths were recorded but 2 reclassified for a net increase of 2. On May 27th, 17 new deaths were reported but 1 reclassified for a net increase of 1.

^The total deaths figure for 24th April includes 185 ‘probables’ that lack laboratory confirmation. I have included these in the total but not in the daily figure.

#The new cases figure for 14th April includes 223 historical cases notified late. These are included in the overall total but not in the daily figure. The total reported on this day was 426.

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