COVID-19 Cases in Ireland – Updated Daily

I thought I would make a record (for posterity, if there ever is such a thing) of the evolution of the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 (Coronavirus) in Ireland after the first case on 29th February; 12th March 2020 was when Schools and Colleges in the Republic were closed.

I will update the data on this page after the daily briefing by the HSE, and update the plot whenever I get the time.

There have been changes in testing frequency and strategy over this time so one can’t use these numbers reliably to track the growth of the epidemic. Each number should really be treated as just a lower limit on the actual number of cases.

It is worth stating also that the “daily” cases are those reported on a given day not those that necessarily happened on that day: there can be a lag of a day or two, for example, between a death occurring and it being reported officially.

I’ve resisted the temptation to fit a model because the changes in testing and reporting are difficult to incorporate.

Because (a) the data are quite noisy and there is a likely “weekend effect” in reporting I’ve decided to present the results from now on as 7-day moving averages.

This makes it very clear that the daily new cases first flattened and is now rising. This is worrying. It is consistent with recent determinations that the R number is now in the range 1.2 to 1.8.

The Data:

February 29th: 1 case (+1)
March 1st: 1 case (+0)
March 2nd: 1 case (+0)
March 3rd: 2 cases (+1)
March 4th: 6 cases (+4)
March 5th: 13 cases (+7)
March 6th: 18 cases (+5)
March 7th: 19 cases (+1)
March 8th: 21 cases (+2)
March 9th: 24 cases (+3)
March 10th: 34 cases (+10)
March 11th: 43 cases (+9); 1 dead (+1)
March 12th: 70 cases (+27); 1 dead (+0)
March 13th: 90 cases (+20); 1 dead (+0)
March 14th: 129 cases (+39); 2 dead (+1)
March 15th: 169 cases (+40); 2 dead (+0)
March 16th: 223 cases (+54); 2 dead (+0)
March 17th: 292 cases (+69); 2 dead (+0)
March 18th: 366 cases (+74); 2 dead (+0)
March 19th: 557 cases (+191); 3 dead (+1)
March 20th: 683 cases (+126); 3 dead (+0)
March 21st: 785 cases (+102); 3 dead (+0)
March 22nd: 906 cases (+121); 4 dead (+1)
March 23rd: 1125 cases (+219); 6 dead (+2)
March 24th: 1329 cases (+204); 7 dead (+1)
March 25th: 1564 cases (+235); 9 dead (+2)
March 26th: 1819 cases (+255); 19 dead (+10)
March 27th: 2121 cases (+302); 22 dead (+3)
March 28th: 2415 cases (+294); 36 dead (+14)
March 29th: 2615 cases (+200); 46 dead (+10)
March 30th: 2910 cases (+295); 54 dead (+8)
March 31st: 3235 cases (+325); 71 dead (+17)
April 1st: 3447 cases (+212); 85 dead (+14)
April 2nd: 3489 cases (+402); 98 dead (+13)
April 3rd: 4273 cases (+424); 120 dead (+22)
April 4th: 4604 cases (+331); 137 dead (+17)
April 5th: 4994 cases (+390); 158 dead (+21)
April 6th: 5364 cases (+370); 174 dead (+16)
April 7th: 5709 cases (+345); 210 dead (+36)
April 8th: 6074 cases (+365); 235 dead (+25)
April 9th: 6574 cases (+500); 263 dead (+28)
April 10th: 8089 cases (+1515)*; 287 dead (+25)
April 11th: 8928 cases (+839)*; 320 dead (+33)
April 12th: 9655 cases (+727)*; 334 dead (+14)
April 13th: 10647 cases (+992)*; 365 dead (+31)
April 14th: 11479 cases (+832)*; 406 dead (+41)
April 15th: 12547 cases (+1068)*; 444 dead (+38)
April 16th: 13271 cases (+724)*; 486 dead (+42)
April 17th: 13980 cases (+709)*; 530 dead (+44)
April 18th: 14758 cases (+778)*; 571 dead (+41)
April 19th: 15251 cases (+493)*; 610 dead (+39)
April 20th: 15652 (+401); 687 dead (+77)
April 21st: 16040 (+388); 730 dead (+44)
April 22nd: 16671 (+631); 769 dead (+49)
April 23rd: 17607 (+936); 794 dead (+28)
April 24th: 18184 (+577); 1014 dead (+37)^
April 25th: 18561 (+377); 1063 dead (+39)
April 26th: 19262 (+701); 1087 dead (+24)
April 27th: 19648 (+386); 1102 dead (+18)
April 28th: 19847 (+299); 1159 dead (+59)
April 29th: 20253 (+376); 1190 dead (+31)
April 30th: 20612 (+359); 1232 dead (+43)
May 1st: 20833 (+221); 1265 dead (+34)
May 2nd: 21176 (+343); 1286 dead (+25)
May 3rd: 21506 (+330); 1303 dead (+19)
May 4th: 21772 (+266); 1319 dead (+16)
May 5th: 21983 (+211); 1339 dead (+23)
May 6th: 22248 (+265); 1375 dead (+37)
May 7th: 22385 (+137); 1403 dead (+29)
May 8th: 22541 (+156): 1429 dead (+27)
May 9th: 22760 (+219): 1446 dead (+18)
May 10th: 22996 (+236): 1458 dead (+12)
May 11th: 23135 (+139); 1467 dead (+15)
May 12th: 23242 (+107); 1488 dead (+24)
May 13th: 23401 (+159); 1497 dead (+10)
May 14th: 23827 (+203)# ; 1506 dead (+10)
May 15th: 23956 (+129); 1518 dead (+16)
May 16th: 24048 (+92); 1533 dead (+15)
May 17th: 24112 (+64); 1543 dead (+10)
May 18th: 24200 (+88); 1547 dead (+4)
May 19th: 24251 (+51); 1561 dead (+16)
May 20th: 24315 (+64); 1571 dead (+11)
May 21st: 24391 (+76); 1583 dead (+12)
May 22nd: 24506 (+115); 1592 dead (+11)
May 23rd: 24582 (+76); 1604 dead (+13)
May 24th: 24639 (+57); 1606 dead (+4)
May 25th: 24698 (+59); 1606 dead (+0)
May 26th: 24735 (+37); 1615 dead (+9)
May 27th: 24803? (+73); 1631 dead (+17)
May 28th: 24841? (+46); 1639 dead (+9)
May 29th: 24876? (+39); 1645 dead (+6)
May 30th: 24929? (+59); 1651 dead (+9)
May 31st: 24990? (+66); 1652 dead (+2)
June 1st: 25062? (+77); 1650 dead (+1)
June 2nd: 25066? (+10); 1658 dead (+8)
June 3rd: 25111? (+47); 1659 dead (+3)
June 4th: 25142? (+38); 1664 dead (+5)
June 5th: 25163 (+28); 1670 dead (+7)
June 6th: 25183 (+24); 1678 dead (+9)
June 7th: 25201 (+25); 1679 dead (+1)
June 8th: 25207 (+9); 1683 dead (+4)
June 9th: 25215 (+9); 1691 dead (+9)
June 10th: 25231 (+19); 1695 dead (+5)
June 11th: 25238 (+8); 1703 dead (+8)
June 12th: 25250 (+13); 1705 dead (+3)
June 13th: 25295 (+46)~; 1705 dead (+5)
June 14th: 25303 (+8); 1706 dead (+1)
June 15th: 25321 (+18); 1706 dead (+0)
June 16th: 25334 (+14); 1709 dead (+3)
June 17th: 25341 (+8); 1710 dead (+3)
June 18th: 25355 (+16); 1714 dead (+4)
June 19th: 25368 (+13); 1714 dead (+4)
June 20th: 25374 (+22); 1715 dead (+2)
June 21st: 25379 (+6); 1715 dead (+0)
June 22nd: 25383 (+4); 1717 dead (+2)
June 23rd: 25391 (+10); 1720 dead (+3)
June 24th: 25396 (+5); 1726 dead (+6)
June 25th: 25405 (+11); 1727 dead (+1)
June 26th: 25414 (+11); 1730 dead (+3)
June 27th: 25437 (+23); 1734 dead (+6)
June 28th: 25439 (+3); 1735 dead (+1)
June 29th: 25462 (+24); 1735 dead (+0)
June 30th: 25473 (+11); 1736 dead (+1)
July 1st: 25477 (+6); 1738 dead (+3)
July 2nd: 25489 (+15); 1738 dead (+5)
July 3rd: 25498 (+9); 1740 dead (+2)
July 4th: 25509 (+11); 1741 dead (+1)
July 5th: 25527 (+18); 1741 dead (+0)
July 6th: 25531 (+4); 1741 dead (+0)
July 7th: 25538 (+24); 1742 dead (+1)
July 8th: 25542 (+11); 1738 dead (+0)
July 9th: 25565 (+23); 1743 dead (+6)
July 10th: 25589 (+25); 1744 dead (+1)
July 11th: 25611 (+23); 1746 dead (+2)
July 12th: 25628 (+17); 1746 dead (+0)
July 13th: 25638 (+11); 1746 dead (+0)
July 14th: 25670 (+32); 1746 dead (+0)
July 15th: 25683 (+14); 1748 dead (+2)
July 16th: 25698 (+21); 1749 dead (+1)
July 17th: 25730 (+34); 1752 dead (+3)
July 18th: 25750 (+21); 1753 dead (+2)
July 19th: 25760 (+10); 1753 dead (+0)
July 20th: 25766 (+6); 1753 dead (+0)
July 21st: 25802 (+36); 1753 dead (+0)
July 22nd: 25819 (+17); 1754 dead (+1)
July 23rd: 25826 (+7); 1763 dead (+1)&
July 24th: 25845 (+20); 1763 dead (+0)
July 25th: 25869 (+24); 1764 dead (+1)
July 26th: 25881 (+12); 1764 dead (+0)
July 27th: 25892 (+11); 1764 dead (+0)
July 28th: 25929 (+40); 1764 dead (+0)
July 29th: 25942 (+14); 1764 dead (+0)
July 30th: 26027 (+85): 1763 dead (+1)
July 31st: 26965 (+38); 1763 dead (+0)
August 1st: 27109 (+45); 1763 dead (+0)
August 2nd: 27162 (+53); 1763 dead (+0)

You will find discrepancies on several days between the cumulative totals (for both cases and deaths) and the result of adding the daily increment to the previous day’s total. This is because of the `denotification’ of old cases. For example, there is a discrepancy of 7 between the total cases recorded on 5th June and the previous day’s total; on 5th June the Department of Health explained that this was due to the 7 cases having been ‘denotified’. This also happens when deaths previous attributed to Covid-19 are no longer regarded as such. Some websites are deducting denotifications from the daily reported figure, but since these might refer to much older cases I think it’s more instructive to keep the daily figure as those reported but just adjust the running total by the number of denotifications.

Other notes:

*The figures for 10th April to 19th April include a backlog of results returned from labs in Germany which should be attributed to earlier dates; some of the samples were taken up to two weeks earlier. The actual figures returned from testing in Ireland were: April 10th – 480; April 11th – 553; April 12th – 430; April 13th – 527; April 14th – 548; April 15th – 657. April 16th – 629; April 17th – 597; April 18th – 630; April 19th – 445.

#The new cases figure for 14th April includes 223 historical cases notified late. These are included in the overall total but not in the daily figure. The total reported on this day was 426.

^The total deaths figure for 24th April includes 185 ‘probables’ that lack laboratory confirmation. I have included these in the total but not in the daily figure.

~The figure of 46 new cases on June 13th includes 22 cases that arise from tests performed on 8th & 9th June and would normally have been reported on 10th & 11th June.

&Nine deaths were reported on 23rd July, but 8 of these were late reports of deaths from April, May and June. I have increased the cumulative total by 9 but as only one is new that is the figure quoted.

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