Archive for COVID Alert Level

Calculating the UK COVID Alert Level

Posted in Covid-19, mathematics, Politics with tags , , , on May 11, 2020 by telescoper

I didn’t watch yesterday’s broadcast by the UK’s Clown-in-Chief Bozo Johnson but I gather that he delivered an address that was every bit as coherent and lucid as one might have expected.

I for one am delighted that at last there is some clarity in the UK Government’s position and that they have applied the necessary level of mathematical rigour to their treatment of the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Catching up on these pronouncements via Twitter I was impressed to see, for example, to see this precise formulation of the calculation required to establish the COVID Alert Level.

Let me take you through a detailed calculation using this important formula.

As far as I know the best estimate of the basic reproduction number R in the UK is around 0.8.

As of this morning (11th May) the number of confirmed Covid-19 infections in the UK is 219,183.

Applying the formula I obtain a value

COVID Alert Level = 219183.8

That seems a big number. I thought it should only go up to 11. Have I slipped up somewhere?